Sirius 0-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees BK Hacken travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sirius have posted 6W 0D 4L at Studenternas IP — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sirius are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, BK Hacken have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Sirius.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with BK Hacken winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. BK Hacken have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 47% and BK Hacken 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 53% | BK Hacken 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.56 xG and BK Hacken 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.014 / defence 0.832 | BK Hacken attack 1.103 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.348. Data: 36 Sirius games / 36 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 45% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 30%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | BK Hacken 3.33. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
BK Hacken lead the H2H ledger, but Sirius carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 45% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Sirius 1.56 / BK Hacken 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.014 / def 0.832 | BK Hacken attack 1.103 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Sirius (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.24
BK Hacken xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs BK Hacken kick off?
Sirius vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Sirius 0 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is Sirius vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs BK Hacken part of?
Sirius vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 45% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sirius and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
Record (5 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 4W.
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in?
Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.01) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.01
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.80
1.24
BK Hacken xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sirius and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sirius and 1.24 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 14D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 2.02 PPG from 60 outings (36W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 13W 3D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L). That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 73%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.40 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Sirius or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, BK Hacken have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 47%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sirius) and 57% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sirius's games and 67% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Sirius's matches and 57% of BK Hacken's.
Do Sirius and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.56 xG and BK Hacken 1.24 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.6 short of their projected output. BK Hacken outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.01 / defence 0.83 against BK Hacken attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 45% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 53%, BK Hacken 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.