Ostersunds FK 0-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 September 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Allsvenskan appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.89 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 42% versus Orebro SK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 37% | Orebro SK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG and Orebro SK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.782 / defence 1.073 | Orebro SK attack 0.750 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.445. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Ostersunds FK games / 19 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 35%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Orebro SK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ostersunds FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 44% | Orebro SK 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.10 / Orebro SK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.782 / def 1.073 | Orebro SK attack 0.750 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Orebro SK xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 September 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 32% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.78x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.11
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.26
1.16
Orebro SK xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.16 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 6W 7D 6L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.32 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L). That actually lags their 1.32 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.21 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.89 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Orebro SK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 44%, Orebro SK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ostersunds FK) and 67% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Ostersunds FK's games and 67% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 67% of Orebro SK's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ostersunds FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG and Orebro SK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Orebro SK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 35%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 37%, Orebro SK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.32 PPG, Orebro SK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.