Ostersunds FK 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Monday 6 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ostersunds FK have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mjallby AIF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjallby AIF are 0.60 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 40% versus Mjallby AIF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ostersunds FK 40% | Mjallby AIF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.15 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.930 / defence 1.470 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.817 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.218. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Ostersunds FK games / 5 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 30% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 44%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 40% | Mjallby AIF 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 30% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.15 / Mjallby AIF 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.930 / def 1.470 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.817 / def 1.254 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 July 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 30% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.82x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
30%
3.36
26%
3.86
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.46
Mjallby AIF xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.46 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 5 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Mjallby AIF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 1 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-2 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 40%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ostersunds FK) and 40% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 60% of games; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Ostersunds FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.15 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.47 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.82 / defence 1.25, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 30% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 44%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 40%, Mjallby AIF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ostersunds FK managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.