Ostersunds FK 0-4 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Ostersunds FK, 1.10 for IFK Goteborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ostersunds FK 0W, IFK Goteborg 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus IFK Goteborg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 46% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.83 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.682 / defence 1.396 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.756 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.381. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Ostersunds FK games / 28 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 20% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 51%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Goteborg 1.96. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | IFK Goteborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 20% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.83 / IFK Goteborg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.682 / def 1.396 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.756 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
IFK Goteborg xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 4 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 20% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.68x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.76x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
20%
4.89
29%
3.49
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.29
1.46
IFK Goteborg xG
4.89
20%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
5%
20.96
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.8 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.46 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 8W 9D 11L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 5W 13D 10L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.00 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L). That actually lags their 1.18 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 3W 8D 3L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.04 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 5W 13D 10L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Goteborg's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.71 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 0-4 on 29 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, IFK Goteborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when IFK Goteborg 4-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, IFK Goteborg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 43% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ostersunds FK's games and 64% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 43% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Ostersunds FK 0-4 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.83 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.46 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 0.8 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.68 / defence 1.40 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 20% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 51%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.18 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.