Ostersunds FK 1-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Hammarby FF at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hammarby FF — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Hammarby FF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2020, ended 1–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus Hammarby FF 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 52% | Hammarby FF 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.48 xG and Hammarby FF 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.015 / defence 1.229 | Hammarby FF attack 1.188 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.114. Data: 42 Ostersunds FK games / 42 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.48 / Hammarby FF 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.015 / def 1.229 | Hammarby FF attack 1.188 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Hammarby FF xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 33% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.72
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.11
1.63
Hammarby FF xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
7%
15.23
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.63 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 11D 21L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 16W 14D 12L from 42 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 2D 10L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.69 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 16W 14D 12L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.80 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Hammarby FF 4-3 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Hammarby FF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Ostersunds FK and 85% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ostersunds FK's games and 70% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 85% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.48 xG and Hammarby FF 1.63 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against Hammarby FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 40%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 52%, Hammarby FF 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.