Ostersunds FK 1-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Hammarby FF at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Ostersunds FK have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Hammarby FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2020, ended 0–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus Hammarby FF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 38% | Hammarby FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.13 xG and Hammarby FF 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.731 / defence 1.093 | Hammarby FF attack 0.966 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.392. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Ostersunds FK games / 24 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 27% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Hammarby FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ostersunds FK (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 27% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.13 / Hammarby FF 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.731 / def 1.093 | Hammarby FF attack 0.966 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Hammarby FF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 25 October 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 27% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
27%
3.71
30%
3.29
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.60
1.47
Hammarby FF xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.47 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 8W 9D 7L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 9W 9D 6L from 24 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.38 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L). That actually lags their 1.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.58 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 62%.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 9W 9D 6L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.83 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Hammarby FF 4-3 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Hammarby FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for Ostersunds FK and 92% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ostersunds FK's games and 67% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 92% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Ostersunds FK 1-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.13 xG and Hammarby FF 1.47 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Hammarby FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 27% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 43%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 38%, Hammarby FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.38 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.