Osters IF 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Visma Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osters IF have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Osters IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mjallby AIF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 51% and Mjallby AIF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 44% | Mjallby AIF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.791 / defence 1.112 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.263 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.308. Osters IF's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Osters IF games / 44 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 18% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 58%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 60% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 18% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Osters IF 0.92 / Mjallby AIF 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.791 / def 1.112 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.263 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Mjallby AIF xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 July 2025 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Osters IF 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 18% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osters IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osters IF's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.26x) against Osters IF's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 13/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
18%
5.57
24%
4.21
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.76
1.84
Mjallby AIF xG
5.57
18%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
35.01
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.84 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 18W 12D 13L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 22W 12D 9L from 43 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Osters IF against 1.81 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 8W 5D 8L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjallby AIF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.65 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 games (1.53 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 12D 9L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Osters IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.71 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Osters IF
1
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 48%, Mjallby AIF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Osters IF) and 67% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Osters IF's games and 67% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Osters IF's matches and 67% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Osters IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Osters IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Osters IF 0-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.84 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 18% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 58%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 44%, Mjallby AIF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.53 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.