Mjallby AIF 4-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Varbergs BoIS FC at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 1W 6D 3L at Strandvallen — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjallby AIF at 1.00 PPG versus Varbergs BoIS FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjallby AIF register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 40% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 33% | Varbergs BoIS FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.785 / defence 1.226 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.934 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.239. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Mjallby AIF games / 57 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.45 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.785 / def 1.226 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.934 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF 4 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 36% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 2 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.79x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.45
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.87
1.42
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.42 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 21D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (16W 17D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.32 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 9W 11D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (7W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 18W 21D 18L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.36 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 46%, Varbergs BoIS FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Mjallby AIF) and 61% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 29% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Mjallby AIF's games and 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 61% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 4-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 33%, Varbergs BoIS FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.32 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.