Mjallby AIF 0-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Varbergs BoIS FC at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 6W 3D 1L at Strandvallen — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2020, ended 2–3 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 63% and Varbergs BoIS FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.074 / defence 0.978 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.993 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.311. Data: 30 Mjallby AIF games / 30 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.55 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.074 / def 0.978 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.993 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 42% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.07x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.55
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.82
1.27
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.27 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 8D 9L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.57 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.87 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 67%, Varbergs BoIS FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mjallby AIF) and 47% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 47% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjallby AIF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 1, as Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.55 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 60%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.57 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.