Mjallby AIF 2-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Sirius meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Sirius (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 0.60 PPG lead over Sirius (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 48% versus Sirius 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 46% | Sirius 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.98 xG and Sirius 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.007 / defence 0.765 | Sirius attack 0.871 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.109. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Mjallby AIF games / 56 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 21% | Sirius 12%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Sirius 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 21% | Sirius 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.98 / Sirius 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.007 / def 0.765 | Sirius attack 0.871 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sirius xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 3 Sirius.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 66% chance of winning, Sirius a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.01) and Sirius's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.87x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.66
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.72
0.74
Sirius xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
2%
58.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.74 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 20W 18D 18L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.21 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 6W 10D 12L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.27 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Sirius away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.68 PPG; Sirius away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sirius in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
1
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 7, Sirius have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 43%, Sirius 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 57% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 29% of games; Sirius in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 61% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 57% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Sirius tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sirius in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Mjallby AIF 2-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.98 xG and Sirius 0.74 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Sirius attack 0.87 / defence 1.29, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 66% | Draw 21% | Sirius 12%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 46%, Sirius 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.39 PPG, Sirius 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.