Mjallby AIF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Sirius meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sirius (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 2W 3D 1L from 6 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.40 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus Sirius 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | Sirius 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and Sirius 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.928 / defence 1.544 | Sirius attack 0.879 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.255. Data: 12 Mjallby AIF games / 12 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 25% | Draw 27% | Sirius 48%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sirius 2.08. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 60% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 25% | Draw 27% | Sirius 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.17 / Sirius 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.928 / def 1.544 | Sirius attack 0.879 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Sirius (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sirius xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 August 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 25% chance of winning, Sirius a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sirius (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.93) and Sirius's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.88x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
25%
4.07
27%
3.71
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.87
1.70
Sirius xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
4%
22.32
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.70 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.42 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Sirius have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Sirius away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.40 PPG; Sirius away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
1
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 7, Sirius have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sirius 4-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Sirius 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Mjallby AIF and 40% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 40% of games; Sirius in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 40% of Sirius's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Sirius tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sirius in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 13, as Mjallby AIF and Sirius drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and Sirius 1.70 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.93 / defence 1.54 against Sirius attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 25% | Draw 27% | Sirius 48%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, Sirius 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.25 PPG, Sirius 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.