Mjallby AIF 1-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Mjallby AIF welcome Orebro SK to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 September 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.20 PPG, Orebro SK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjallby AIF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Orebro SK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2020, ended 1–3 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Orebro SK trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 70% and Orebro SK 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 60% | Orebro SK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG and Orebro SK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.089 / defence 1.395 | Orebro SK attack 0.691 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.399. Data: 20 Mjallby AIF games / 20 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 30% | Orebro SK 33%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Orebro SK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | Orebro SK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 21 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 30% | Orebro SK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.44 / Orebro SK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.089 / def 1.395 | Orebro SK attack 0.691 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Orebro SK xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 September 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.09x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.33
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.35
Orebro SK xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.35 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 6W 7D 7L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.25 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.15 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Orebro SK away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.30 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2021, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mjallby AIF at 80%, Orebro SK at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Mjallby AIF and 60% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Mjallby AIF's games and 60% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 60% of Orebro SK's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Orebro SK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Orebro SK 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.44 xG and Orebro SK 1.35 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.09 / defence 1.40 against Orebro SK attack 0.69 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 30% | Orebro SK 33%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 60%, Orebro SK 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.25 PPG, Orebro SK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.