Mjallby AIF 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Malmo FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 4W 5D 1L at Strandvallen — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Malmo FF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Malmo FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Malmo FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 35% versus Malmo FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 29% | Malmo FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.22 xG and Malmo FF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.918 / defence 0.947 | Malmo FF attack 0.907 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.125. Data: 48 Mjallby AIF games / 48 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Malmo FF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Malmo FF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 70% | Malmo FF 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.22 / Malmo FF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.918 / def 0.947 | Malmo FF attack 0.907 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Malmo FF xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 41% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.92) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.25
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.19
0.97
Malmo FF xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.97 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 17D 15L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.92 PPG from 48 outings (27W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 9W 9D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.71 points per game from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.75 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Malmo FF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 17D 15L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 27W 11D 10L in their last 48 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.50 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Malmo FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 42%, Malmo FF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mjallby AIF) and 46% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Malmo FF in 50%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 42% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 46% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 19, as Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.22 xG and Malmo FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Malmo FF attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 41% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 28%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 29%, Malmo FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.