Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Mjallby AIF's favour (2.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 3W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 61% and IFK Norrkoping 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 49% | IFK Norrkoping 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.73 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.969 / defence 0.681 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.930 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.365. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Mjallby AIF games / 57 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 57% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 18%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 40% | IFK Norrkoping 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 57% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.73 / IFK Norrkoping 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.969 / def 0.681 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.930 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
IFK Norrkoping xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 57% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 3W | Draws 4 | IFK Norrkoping 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.93x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.12
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
30.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.86 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 34W 14D 9L from 57 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 28L across 57 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Norrkoping heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 18W 9D 1L from 28 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 6W 9D 13L across 28 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.30 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 34W 14D 9L in their last 57 games (2.04 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 17W 12D 28L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.25 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Mjallby AIF, 79% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Mjallby AIF) and 61% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mjallby AIF's games and 79% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 61% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IFK Norrkoping 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.73 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.68 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 57% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 18%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 49%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.