Mjallby AIF 0-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.80 for IFK Goteborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 40% versus IFK Goteborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 36% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.12 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.724 / defence 0.987 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.859 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.295. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Mjallby AIF games / 53 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Goteborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.12 / IFK Goteborg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.724 / def 0.987 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.859 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
IFK Goteborg xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 36% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.72x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.86x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.45
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.22
1.10
IFK Goteborg xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.10 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 21W 14D 18L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 20W 11D 22L from 53 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.34 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 14D 18L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 20W 11D 22L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.27 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 58%, IFK Goteborg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 54% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 42% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 54% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.12 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 35%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 36%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.45 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.