Mjallby AIF 0-5 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 23 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 4L from 9 games (1.44 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Strandvallen this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.44 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.78 PPG across 9 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.44 vs 1.78 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 44% versus IF Elfsborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 44% | IF Elfsborg 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.062 / defence 1.134 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.785 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.075. IF Elfsborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Mjallby AIF games / 9 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 67% | IF Elfsborg 40%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.52 / IF Elfsborg 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.062 / def 1.134 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.785 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.96
IF Elfsborg xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 July 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 5 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 50% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.79x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.87
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.48
0.96
IF Elfsborg xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.96 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 4W 1D 4L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 4W 4D 1L from 9 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.78 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Mjallby AIF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Elfsborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.00 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Mjallby AIF, 67% for IF Elfsborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Mjallby AIF and 67% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 33% of games; IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mjallby AIF's games and 67% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 67% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 0-5 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.96 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 0.96 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a IF Elfsborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 44%, IF Elfsborg 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.44 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.