Mjallby AIF 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2022, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 36% versus GIF Sundsvall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 29% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.14 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.904 / defence 1.124 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.624 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.182. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.587 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Mjallby AIF games / 22 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 67% | Draw 20% | GIF Sundsvall 13%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | GIF Sundsvall 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 67% | Draw 20% | GIF Sundsvall 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.14 / GIF Sundsvall 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.904 / def 1.124 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.624 / def 1.587 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
GIF Sundsvall xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 67% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.90x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.97
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.97
0.83
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
65.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.83 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 17W 19D 16L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 25L across 52 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.35 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 10D 7L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 6W 5D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.25 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 19D 16L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 25L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.42 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 0, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 46%, GIF Sundsvall 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 58% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 23, as Mjallby AIF and GIF Sundsvall drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.14 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.83 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.62 / defence 1.59, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 67% | Draw 20% | GIF Sundsvall 13%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 29%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.