Mjallby AIF 1-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 3D 4L at Strandvallen — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Mjallby AIF, 1.60 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Djurgardens IF in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 47% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Djurgardens IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.20 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.007 / defence 0.904 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.926 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.425. Data: 31 Mjallby AIF games / 31 Djurgardens IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Djurgardens IF 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.20 / Djurgardens IF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.007 / def 0.904 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.926 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Djurgardens IF xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 36% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.93x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.61
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.40
1.19
Djurgardens IF xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.19 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 19D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.75 PPG from 60 outings (31W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.75 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.57 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.60 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 43%, Djurgardens IF 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 40%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 30% of games; Djurgardens IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Djurgardens IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.20 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 36%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, Djurgardens IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.