Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjallby AIF face BK Hacken.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 60% versus BK Hacken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.56 xG and BK Hacken 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.962 / defence 0.816 | BK Hacken attack 1.102 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.311. Data: 37 Mjallby AIF games / 37 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 29%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | BK Hacken 3.45. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | BK Hacken 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.56 / BK Hacken 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.962 / def 0.816 | BK Hacken attack 1.102 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
BK Hacken xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 46% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 5W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.96) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
46%
2.17
25%
3.93
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.74
1.18
BK Hacken xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.18 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 37W 14D 9L from 60 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over BK Hacken heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 20W 9D 1L from 30 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.60 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 games (2.08 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or BK Hacken away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.30 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 67%, BK Hacken 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Mjallby AIF) and 60% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; BK Hacken in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mjallby AIF's games and 43% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 60% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.56 xG and BK Hacken 1.18 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against BK Hacken attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 29%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with BK Hacken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.