Mjallby AIF 2-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Mjallby AIF welcome AIK Stockholm to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 July 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AIK Stockholm have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Mjallby AIF.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
It is worth noting that AIK Stockholm have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 67% versus AIK Stockholm 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 56% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.50 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.145 / defence 0.731 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.871 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.236. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Mjallby AIF games / 46 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 20%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | AIK Stockholm 5.00. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
AIK Stockholm lead the H2H ledger, but Mjallby AIF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 60% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.50 / AIK Stockholm 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.145 / def 0.731 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.871 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
AIK Stockholm xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 54% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (8 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 4W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.83
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.29
0.79
AIK Stockholm xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
22.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.79 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 25W 12D 9L from 46 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 12L across 46 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.89 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 14W 7D 1L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 11W 3D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.52 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 25W 12D 9L in their last 46 games (1.89 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 8D 12L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.23 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 73%, AIK Stockholm 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 46% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Mjallby AIF's games and 46% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 46% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat AIK Stockholm 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.50 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.79 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.73 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 20%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 56%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.89 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.