Malmo FF 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host IF Elfsborg at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 April 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Eleda Stadion this season.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Malmo FF at 2.10 PPG versus IF Elfsborg's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Malmo FF have won 1, IF Elfsborg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Malmo FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 60% versus IF Elfsborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 62% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.36 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.071 / defence 0.948 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.090 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.288. Data: 31 Malmo FF games / 31 IF Elfsborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Malmo FF 1.36 / IF Elfsborg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.071 / def 0.948 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.090 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Malmo FF 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 38% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Malmo FF 1W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Malmo FF's attack rating (1.07) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.87
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
IF Elfsborg xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.33 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 17D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.77 PPG from 60 outings (29W 19D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Malmo FF on 1.98 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Malmo FF's home form reads 19W 9D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.77 points per game from 30 outings (15W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 34W 17D 9L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.20 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Malmo FF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Malmo FF 1-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 60%, IF Elfsborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Malmo FF) and 53% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Malmo FF's games and 53% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Malmo FF's matches and 53% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF and IF Elfsborg finished level at 1-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.36 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 36%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 62%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.98 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.