Kalmar FF 0-4 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kalmar FF at 1.80 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus Vasteras SK FK 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.33 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.966 / defence 1.215 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.541 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.304. Data: 41 Kalmar FF games / 11 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Vasteras SK FK 4.17. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Kalmar FF 1.33 / Vasteras SK FK 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.966 / def 1.215 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.541 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Vasteras SK FK xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Kalmar FF 0 - 4 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 48% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.97x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.55
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.19
0.86
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
6%
15.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.86 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 6D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.50 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.80 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Vasteras SK FK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 0-1 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Vasteras SK FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kalmar FF) and 47% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Kalmar FF 0-4 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.33 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.54 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 48% | Draw 28% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.