Kalmar FF 2-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Kalmar FF, 1.70 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Djurgardens IF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 44% versus Djurgardens IF 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 42% | Djurgardens IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.777 / defence 0.966 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.910 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.284. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Kalmar FF games / 59 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 31% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 39%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Djurgardens IF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 40% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 31% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Kalmar FF 0.97 / Djurgardens IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.777 / def 0.966 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.910 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 31% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (6 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 5W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.78x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.91x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.35
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.10
1.13
Djurgardens IF xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.13 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 12D 20L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 32W 11D 16L from 59 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.81 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (17W 5D 7L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 11W 8D 10L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 27W 12D 20L in their last 59 games (1.58 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 16L in their last 59 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.93 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 34%, Djurgardens IF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Kalmar FF and 38% for Djurgardens IF.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 38%; Djurgardens IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 31% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 39%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 42%, Djurgardens IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.58 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.