Kalmar FF 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 2.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kalmar FF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kalmar FF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 49% versus AIK Stockholm 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalmar FF 45% | AIK Stockholm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.04 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.908 / defence 1.141 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.033 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.083. AIK Stockholm's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Kalmar FF games / 49 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 29% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 41%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | AIK Stockholm 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 40% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 29% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Kalmar FF 1.04 / AIK Stockholm 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.908 / def 1.141 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.033 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
AIK Stockholm xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Kalmar FF 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 29% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.91x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.29
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.31
1.28
AIK Stockholm xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.28 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 16D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.61 PPG from 49 outings (22W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.24 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 5W 9D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.20 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 15W 16D 18L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 22W 13D 14L in their last 49 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.04 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 39%, AIK Stockholm 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Kalmar FF) and 39% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 35%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 48% of games; AIK Stockholm in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 44% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 39% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.04 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.28 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 29% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 41%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 45%, AIK Stockholm 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.24 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.