IFK Varnamo 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 56%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 4W 2D 4L at Finnvedsvallen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finnvedsvallen this season.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, IFK Varnamo have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 52% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 50% | Mjallby AIF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.91 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.618 / defence 1.293 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.956 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.375. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 IFK Varnamo games / 42 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 56%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 40% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.91 / Mjallby AIF 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.618 / def 1.293 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.956 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Mjallby AIF xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 20% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.62x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
20%
5.01
24%
4.17
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.61
1.70
Mjallby AIF xG
5.01
20%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
4%
27.44
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.70 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 13D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.37 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.37 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 47%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for IFK Varnamo and 27% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 33% of games; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.91 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.70 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.62 / defence 1.29 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 20% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 56%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 50%, Mjallby AIF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.