IFK Varnamo 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 4D 3L at Finnvedsvallen — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.20 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IFK Varnamo, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 46% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 44% | IF Elfsborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.01 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.712 / defence 0.978 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.996 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.125. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 IFK Varnamo games / 48 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 32% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 36%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | IF Elfsborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 32% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.01 / IF Elfsborg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.712 / def 0.978 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.996 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
IF Elfsborg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 32% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.71) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
32%
3.13
32%
3.15
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.11
1.10
IF Elfsborg xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.10 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 11D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.62 PPG from 48 outings (22W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.60 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 13W 6D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 games (1.60 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.96 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.39 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
5
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2025, when IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 44%, IF Elfsborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (IFK Varnamo) and 48% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 30%; IF Elfsborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 44% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo and IF Elfsborg finished level at 1-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.01 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 32% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 36%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 44%, IF Elfsborg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.