IFK Varnamo 0-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus IF Brommapojkarna in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Varnamo's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Finnvedsvallen, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finnvedsvallen this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.62 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.815 / defence 0.967 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.901 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.026. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 IFK Varnamo games / 5 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 53% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | IF Brommapojkarna 5.26. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 53% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.62 / IF Brommapojkarna 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.815 / def 0.967 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.901 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
IF Brommapojkarna xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 4 May 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 53% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. IFK Varnamo home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.81x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (0.90x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.63
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.52
0.89
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
4%
26.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.89 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.62 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.89 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 53% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 19%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a IF Brommapojkarna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.