IFK Varnamo 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Finnvedsvallen, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 51% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 46% | Djurgardens IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.809 / defence 1.078 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.999 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.134. Data: 43 IFK Varnamo games / 44 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Djurgardens IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 60% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.38 / Djurgardens IF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.809 / def 1.078 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.999 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Djurgardens IF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.60
30%
3.30
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.60
1.22
Djurgardens IF xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.22 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 10D 19L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.81 PPG from 43 outings (23W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.29 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.19 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Djurgardens IF 6-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 52%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Varnamo) and 38% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 29% of games; Djurgardens IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.38 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 31%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 46%, Djurgardens IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.