IFK Varnamo 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as IFK Varnamo welcome Degerfors IF to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.96 xG and Degerfors IF 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.593 / defence 0.871 | Degerfors IF attack 0.865 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.941. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.593 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 IFK Varnamo games / 34 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 40% | Draw 34% | Degerfors IF 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Degerfors IF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Degerfors IF's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 40% | Draw 34% | Degerfors IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.96 / Degerfors IF 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.593 / def 0.871 | Degerfors IF attack 0.865 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Degerfors IF xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 40% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Degerfors IF away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.59) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
40%
2.51
34%
2.93
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.67
0.71
Degerfors IF xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.20
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.71 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 3-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Degerfors IF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.96 xG and Degerfors IF 0.71 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.59 / defence 0.87 against Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 40% | Draw 34% | Degerfors IF 26%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.