IFK Varnamo 1-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BK Hacken make the trip to Finnvedsvallen to face IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 9 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
BK Hacken (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG and BK Hacken 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.727 / defence 0.808 | BK Hacken attack 1.058 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.018. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 IFK Varnamo games / 36 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 32% | BK Hacken 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | BK Hacken 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 32% | BK Hacken 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.97 / BK Hacken 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.727 / def 0.808 | BK Hacken attack 1.058 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.87
BK Hacken xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 36% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. BK Hacken away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.06x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
36%
2.74
32%
3.09
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.84
0.87
BK Hacken xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.8 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.87 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
BK Hacken
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: BK Hacken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 1-5 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
5
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, BK Hacken have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 1-5 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG and BK Hacken 0.87 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.73 / defence 0.81 against BK Hacken attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 32% | BK Hacken 31%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.