IFK Norrkoping 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 13 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at PlatinumCars Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.77 xG and Degerfors IF 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.117 / defence 0.967 | Degerfors IF attack 0.932 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.095. Data: 35 IFK Norrkoping games / 5 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 55% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 20%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Degerfors IF 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 13 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 55% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.77 / Degerfors IF 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.117 / def 0.967 | Degerfors IF attack 0.932 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Degerfors IF xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 13 May 2021 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 55% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. IFK Norrkoping home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Norrkoping's attack rating (1.12) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.93x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.01
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.76
0.99
Degerfors IF xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
3%
29.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.99 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.77 xG and Degerfors IF 0.99 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Degerfors IF attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 55% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 20%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.