IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 18 as IFK Goteborg welcome Hammarby FF to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 August 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.70 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Goteborg, 2 for Hammarby FF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2022, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 45% versus Hammarby FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.13 xG and Hammarby FF 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.019 / defence 0.846 | Hammarby FF attack 1.133 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.121. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 IFK Goteborg games / 47 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 36% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 33%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Hammarby FF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 36% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.13 / Hammarby FF 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.019 / def 0.846 | Hammarby FF attack 1.133 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hammarby FF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 36% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.18
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.21
1.08
Hammarby FF xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.08 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 11D 16L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 25W 11D 11L from 47 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.51 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.87 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Hammarby FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 25W 11D 11L in their last 47 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.32 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, Hammarby FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (IFK Goteborg) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 32%; Hammarby FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 46% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.13 xG and Hammarby FF 1.08 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Hammarby FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 36% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 33%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.51 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.