IFK Goteborg 3-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 28 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg at Gamla Ullevi this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 54% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 48% | Djurgardens IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.88 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.861 / defence 1.027 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.001 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.100. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 IFK Goteborg games / 54 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 27% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 40%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Djurgardens IF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Djurgardens IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 27% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.88 / Djurgardens IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.861 / def 1.027 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.001 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Djurgardens IF xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Goteborg 3 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 27% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.86) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.00x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
27%
3.67
32%
3.10
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.01
1.13
Djurgardens IF xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.13 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 14W 20D 20L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 15L across 54 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 7W 8D 11L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 12W 5D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.63 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 14W 20D 20L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.12 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.58 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 6-0 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 6-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 54%, Djurgardens IF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Goteborg) and 42% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 38%; Djurgardens IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Djurgardens IF 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.88 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.68, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 27% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 40%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 48%, Djurgardens IF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.