IFK Goteborg 2-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 26 April 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.66 xG and Degerfors IF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.051 / defence 0.922 | Degerfors IF attack 0.750 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.012. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 IFK Goteborg games / 2 Degerfors IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 60% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 15%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Degerfors IF 6.67. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Apr 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 60% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.66 / Degerfors IF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.051 / def 0.922 | Degerfors IF attack 0.750 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Degerfors IF xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 26 April 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 60% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. IFK Goteborg home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.75x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
60%
1.67
25%
3.97
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.36
0.70
Degerfors IF xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
3%
35.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.70 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IFK Goteborg 2-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.66 xG and Degerfors IF 0.70 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Degerfors IF attack 0.75 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 60% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 15%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.