IFK Goteborg 1-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host AIK Stockholm at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — IFK Goteborg are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Goteborg, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus AIK Stockholm 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 49% | AIK Stockholm 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.44 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.957 / defence 1.072 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.211 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.216. AIK Stockholm have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 IFK Goteborg games / 57 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 39%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | AIK Stockholm 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.44 / AIK Stockholm 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.957 / def 1.072 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.211 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
AIK Stockholm xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 32% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.45
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.01
1.58
AIK Stockholm xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
7%
14.96
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.58 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 11D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.86 PPG from 57 outings (31W 13D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 12W 6D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.54 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 23W 11D 23L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 31W 13D 13L in their last 57 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.32 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, AIK Stockholm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Goteborg) and 46% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 57% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 46% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.44 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.58 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 39%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 49%, AIK Stockholm 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.