IFK Goteborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Goteborg face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host AIK Stockholm at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 6 November 2023 at 18:10 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IFK Goteborg have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
AIK Stockholm — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.40 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, IFK Goteborg have won 1, AIK Stockholm 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2023, ended IFK Goteborg 2–2 AIK Stockholm — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.53 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.917 / defence 0.879 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.778 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.283. AIK Stockholm's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from IFK Goteborg's last 58 games and AIK Stockholm's last 58.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 53% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 22%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.90 | Draw 3.88 | AIK Stockholm 4.65. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 29 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 18:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 53% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG IFK Goteborg 1.53 / AIK Stockholm 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.917 / def 0.879 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.778 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
AIK Stockholm xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:10 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 53% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Goteborg's last 58 games and AIK Stockholm's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.88
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.41
0.88
AIK Stockholm xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
21.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.88 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 12D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.41 PPG from 58 outings (22W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.29 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 29 away games (9W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
IFK Goteborg (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 12D 25L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 22W 16D 20L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.45 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.14 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won AIK Stockholm 5-2 IFK Goteborg.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Goteborg have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: AIK Stockholm 2-2 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 48%, AIK Stockholm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Goteborg) and 55% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 59% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 55% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 66% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.53 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.88 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 53% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 22%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.29 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.