IF Elfsborg 3-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Ostersunds FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 17 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. IF Elfsborg's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2020, ended 0–1 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 62% versus Ostersunds FK 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 52% | Ostersunds FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.56 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.990 / defence 1.092 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.776 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.172. Data: 41 IF Elfsborg games / 40 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 22%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 4.55. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Ostersunds FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.56 / Ostersunds FK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.990 / def 1.092 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.776 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ostersunds FK xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 48% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.78x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.37
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.56
0.99
Ostersunds FK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.99 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 40 games, going 17W 16D 7L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (10W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 9W 8D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.02 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 17W 16D 7L in their last 40 games (1.68 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Ostersunds FK away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.75 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.25 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Ostersunds FK 3-1 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 65%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IF Elfsborg) and 40% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 35%; Ostersunds FK in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Ostersunds FK 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.56 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 22%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 52%, Ostersunds FK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.