IF Elfsborg 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 26 April 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjallby AIF are 0.50 PPG clear of IF Elfsborg in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Mjallby AIF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 67% and Mjallby AIF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 53% | Mjallby AIF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.36 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.947 / defence 1.120 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.953 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.012. Data: 32 IF Elfsborg games / 32 Mjallby AIF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 42% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 29%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: IF Elfsborg 80% | Mjallby AIF 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Apr 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 42% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.36 / Mjallby AIF 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.947 / def 1.120 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.953 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 26 April 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 42% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.95x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.52
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.08
Mjallby AIF xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.08 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 15D 3L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.57 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 6W 8D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mjallby AIF in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 15D 3L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.73 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for IF Elfsborg, 60% for Mjallby AIF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of IF Elfsborg's games and 60% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.36 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 42% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 29%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 53%, Mjallby AIF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.70 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.