IF Elfsborg 2-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Thursday 17 September 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward IF Elfsborg. A 0.60 PPG lead over Mjallby AIF (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 58% and Mjallby AIF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 47% | Mjallby AIF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.62 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.208 / defence 1.227 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.852 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.430. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 IF Elfsborg games / 19 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 34%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Mjallby AIF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 62% | Mjallby AIF 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.62 / Mjallby AIF 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.208 / def 1.227 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.852 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Mjallby AIF xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 17 September 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 39% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.85x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.66
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.11
1.50
Mjallby AIF xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.50 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 19 games, going 8W 9D 2L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 3W 4D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.42 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 9D 2L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.62 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 62%, Mjallby AIF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (Mjallby AIF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IF Elfsborg's games and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 19, as IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.62 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.50 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 34%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 47%, Mjallby AIF 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.