IF Elfsborg 2-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.70 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: IF Elfsborg 3W, Mjallby AIF 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | Mjallby AIF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.41 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.040 / defence 1.005 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.995 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.083. Data: 30 IF Elfsborg games / 30 Mjallby AIF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 29%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Mjallby AIF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 60% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.41 / Mjallby AIF 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.040 / def 1.005 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.995 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 44% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.99x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.76
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.08
Mjallby AIF xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.08 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 10D 17L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (26W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.52 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.10 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Elfsborg) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF finished level at 2-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.41 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 29%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.