IF Elfsborg 1-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Norrkoping make the trip to Borås Arena to face IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for IF Elfsborg, 1.40 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, IFK Norrkoping in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 67% and IFK Norrkoping 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 53% | IFK Norrkoping 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.30 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.993 / defence 1.266 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.100 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.095. Data: 38 IF Elfsborg games / 37 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 30% | Draw 29% | IFK Norrkoping 40%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Norrkoping 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 80% | IFK Norrkoping 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 30% | Draw 29% | IFK Norrkoping 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.30 / IFK Norrkoping 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.993 / def 1.266 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.100 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IFK Norrkoping xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 30% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 0.99x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.10x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.40
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.83
1.53
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
7%
15.24
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.53 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 12W 15D 3L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 13W 7D 10L from 30 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.53 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (6W 8D 1L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 2.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 77%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 15D 3L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 13W 7D 10L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.73 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for IF Elfsborg, 80% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for IF Elfsborg and 73% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of IF Elfsborg's games and 80% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Norrkoping 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.30 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.53 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 30% | Draw 29% | IFK Norrkoping 40%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 53%, IFK Norrkoping 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.70 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.