IF Elfsborg 5-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as IF Elfsborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.68 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.944 / defence 1.072 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.856 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.178. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 IF Elfsborg games / 2 IF Brommapojkarna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 24%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.17. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.68 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.944 / def 1.072 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.856 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
IF Brommapojkarna xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Elfsborg 5 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 51% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.89
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.76
1.08
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.08 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 5-0 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 5-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.68 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.08 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 51% | Draw 26% | IF Brommapojkarna 24%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.