IF Elfsborg 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.90 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 3 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Hammarby FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 64% | Hammarby FF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.41 xG and Hammarby FF 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.329 / defence 0.936 | Hammarby FF attack 1.139 / defence 0.693. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.353. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.693 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 IF Elfsborg games / 52 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 37% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 38%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Hammarby FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 37% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.41 / Hammarby FF 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.329 / def 0.936 | Hammarby FF attack 1.139 / def 0.693 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 37% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (6 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.33x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
37%
2.72
25%
4.00
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.85
1.44
Hammarby FF xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.44 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 52 games, going 31W 8D 13L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.62 PPG from 52 outings (23W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.94 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 18W 5D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 31W 8D 13L in their last 52 games (1.94 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 23W 15D 14L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.27 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.31 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 58%, Hammarby FF 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (IF Elfsborg) and 46% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 42%; Hammarby FF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 35% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 46% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IF Elfsborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 23, as IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.41 xG and Hammarby FF 1.44 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.33 / defence 0.94 against Hammarby FF attack 1.14 / defence 0.69, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 37% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 38%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 64%, Hammarby FF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.94 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.