IF Elfsborg 3-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as IF Elfsborg welcome GIF Sundsvall to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.00 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.182 / defence 1.180 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.762 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.941. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 IF Elfsborg games / 4 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 64% | Draw 21% | GIF Sundsvall 15%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | GIF Sundsvall 6.67. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 64% | Draw 21% | GIF Sundsvall 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.00 / GIF Sundsvall 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.182 / def 1.180 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.762 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
GIF Sundsvall xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 64% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.85
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.85
0.85
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
49.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.85 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when GIF Sundsvall 0-2 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and GIF Sundsvall?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat GIF Sundsvall 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.00 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.85 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.18 / defence 1.18 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 64% | Draw 21% | GIF Sundsvall 15%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.