IF Elfsborg 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. IF Elfsborg's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Djurgardens IF's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 50% versus Djurgardens IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 3.20 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.630 / defence 0.716 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.942 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.158. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.630 — their λ of 3.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 IF Elfsborg games / 41 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 83% | Draw 12% | Djurgardens IF 5%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Djurgardens IF 20.00. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Djurgardens IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 83% | Draw 12% | Djurgardens IF 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 53% | xG IF Elfsborg 3.20 / Djurgardens IF 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.630 / def 0.716 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.942 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.20
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Djurgardens IF xG
53%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 83% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.63x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.20. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.94x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 4-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
83%
1.20
12%
8.67
5%
19.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.20
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.98
0.78
Djurgardens IF xG
1.20
83%
Home win
8.67
12%
Draw
19.19
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
4%
24.48
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 3.20 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.78 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 30W 14D 16L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.90 PPG from 60 outings (34W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.90 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.68 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.87 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Djurgardens IF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Elfsborg) and 30% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 43%; Djurgardens IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 3.20 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.78 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.63 / defence 0.72 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 83% | Draw 12% | Djurgardens IF 5%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.73 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.