IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Utsikten at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Utsikten have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Utsikten have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IF Brommapojkarna at 1.00 PPG versus Utsikten's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Utsikten in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IF Brommapojkarna, 2 for Utsikten and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 7–0 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Utsikten trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 58% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 68% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 xG and Utsikten 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.848 / defence 1.294 | Utsikten attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.263. Data: 30 IF Brommapojkarna games / 0 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 36%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Utsikten 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Utsikten 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 / Utsikten 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.848 / def 1.294 | Utsikten attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Utsikten xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten is a Relegation Round fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 40% chance of winning, Utsikten a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Utsikten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (0.85) and Utsikten's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.02
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.39
Utsikten xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
8%
12.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.39 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 3D 17L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Utsikten's form line: 10W 7D 14L from 31 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Utsikten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.16 PPG, Utsikten on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L).
On the road, Utsikten have gone 6W 1D 8L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Utsikten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 11W 3D 17L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.13 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Utsikten have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2023, when IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 60%, Utsikten 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IF Brommapojkarna and 53% for Utsikten. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%; IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 47% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 53% of Utsikten's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IF Brommapojkarna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna and Utsikten finished level at 0-0 at Grimsta IP, Relegation Round, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 xG and Utsikten 1.39 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Utsikten landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Utsikten attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 36%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 68%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.16 PPG, Utsikten 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.