Hammarby FF 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Thursday 2 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Hammarby FF (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hammarby FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.75 PPG across 4 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 1L. Last five: W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Varbergs BoIS FC have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC arrive in superior form — a 0.75 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 50% and Varbergs BoIS FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hammarby FF 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.09 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.950 / defence 1.063 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.137 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.424. Data: 4 Hammarby FF games / 4 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 21% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.00. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 21% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 1.09 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.950 / def 1.063 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.137 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 2 July 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Hammarby FF 1 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 21% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.14x) against Hammarby FF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
21%
4.66
29%
3.45
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.72
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.59
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
4%
26.02
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.72 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hammarby FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Varbergs BoIS FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 2.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Early Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 5-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hammarby FF and 100% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hammarby FF's games and 75% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hammarby FF's matches and 100% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Hammarby FF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.09 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.72 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 21% | Draw 29% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Varbergs BoIS FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Hammarby FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hammarby FF conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.