Hammarby FF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Sirius — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 0 for Sirius and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 52% versus Sirius 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Sirius 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.24 xG and Sirius 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.465 / defence 0.816 | Sirius attack 0.707 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.201. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Hammarby FF games / 56 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 71% | Draw 20% | Sirius 9%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | Sirius 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 50% | Sirius 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 71% | Draw 20% | Sirius 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Hammarby FF 2.24 / Sirius 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.465 / def 0.816 | Sirius attack 0.707 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Sirius xG
46%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 71% chance of winning, Sirius a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Record (2 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 0 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
71%
1.40
20%
5.00
9%
11.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.94
0.69
Sirius xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
11.57
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
1%
109.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.69 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 15D 12L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.20 PPG from 56 outings (18W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hammarby FF's home form reads 19W 7D 2L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (5W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.14 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 29W 15D 12L in their last 56 games (1.82 PPG), while Sirius have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Sirius away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.29 PPG; Sirius away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 57%, Sirius 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hammarby FF and 61% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sirius in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hammarby FF's games and 54% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hammarby FF's matches and 61% of Sirius's.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sirius in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.24 xG and Sirius 0.69 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.47 / defence 0.82 against Sirius attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 71% | Draw 20% | Sirius 9%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Sirius 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.