Hammarby FF vs Sirius – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Hammarby FF welcome Sirius to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 29 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at 3Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
Sirius — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.70 (Sirius). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Hammarby FF: 6 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Sirius, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Sirius winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus Sirius 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 54% | Sirius 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.64 xG and Sirius 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.357 / defence 0.691 | Sirius attack 1.324 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Hammarby FF games / 53 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 24% | Sirius 28%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 3.57. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 40% | Sirius 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 24% | Sirius 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Hammarby FF 1.64 / Sirius 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.357 / def 0.691 | Sirius attack 1.324 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sirius xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Sirius kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 3Arena.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Sirius part of?
Hammarby FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 48% chance of winning, Sirius a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hammarby FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Record (10 meetings): Hammarby FF 6W | Draws 2 | Sirius 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.10
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.19
Sirius xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.19 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 9D 12L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.74 PPG from 54 outings (28W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 2.00 PPG, Sirius on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hammarby FF's home form reads 21W 2D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.74 points per game from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Sirius's attacking output running into Hammarby FF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 69%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 33W 9D 12L in their last 54 games (2.00 PPG), while Sirius have gone 28W 10D 16L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Sirius away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.41 PPG; Sirius away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sirius in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Sirius?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 41%, Sirius 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Hammarby FF and 74% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Hammarby FF's games and 78% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Hammarby FF's matches and 74% of Sirius's.
Do Hammarby FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sirius in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.