Hammarby FF 2-2 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Hammarby FF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 2W 8D 0L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Hammarby FF, 1.80 for Malmo FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Malmo FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 67% and Malmo FF 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 67% | Malmo FF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.49 xG and Malmo FF 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.139 / defence 1.165 | Malmo FF attack 1.114 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.361. Data: 27 Hammarby FF games / 27 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 32% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Malmo FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 32% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Hammarby FF 1.49 / Malmo FF 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.139 / def 1.165 | Malmo FF attack 1.114 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Malmo FF xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 November 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 2 Malmo FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 32% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hammarby FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.11x) against Hammarby FF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
32%
3.17
25%
3.95
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.26
1.77
Malmo FF xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.77 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 10W 10D 7L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF's form line: 16W 8D 3L from 27 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Malmo FF are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hammarby FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (4W 8D 1L).
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 10W 10D 7L in their last 27 games (1.48 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 16W 8D 3L in their last 27 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.54 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 62%, Malmo FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hammarby FF) and 62% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Malmo FF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hammarby FF's games and 62% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 62% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Hammarby FF and Malmo FF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.49 xG and Malmo FF 1.77 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.14 / defence 1.17 against Malmo FF attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 32% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 43%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 67%, Malmo FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.